THE NATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK

Since the last Shell Energy Forecast was prepared, almost two years have elapsed. Although the basic projections we made then remain essentially unchanged, the urgency of the domestic energy gap problem has become even more clearly apparent and difficulties that were just discernible then in relation to imported supplies are now more plainly visible, and have in fact developed sooner than we expected. The estimates of domestic oil and gas production contained in our 1972 paper were among the more pessimistic that have been published. Now, after further study, and with the benefit of later figures, we reluctantly conclude that our estimate that natural gas production would peak in 1974/75 was too optimistic and that a declining trend has already begun. Our fresh examination of the energy supply and demand picture confirms that only oil can supply the major part of the growth in the nation's energy needs for the next decade at least. At best, newly found domestic oil can just offset declines in older fields and therefore the additional oil needed will have to come from abroad. Some contribution towards supplying the energy requirement will come from nuclear sources towards the end of the 1970s and this contribution will later accelerate. We believe that policy options still exist that can influence beneficially the degree of U.S. foreign dependence and the safeguarding of the economy in the years ahead. Some suggestion of measures that might be taken are included in the last section of this paper.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • One in a series of Shell Oils papers dealing with topics of national importance.
• Corporate Authors:

  Shell Oil Company

  50 West 50th Street
  New York, NY  United States  10020
• Publication Date: 1973-3

Media Info

• Pagination: 39 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air quality management; Air transportation; Coal; Conservation; Crude oil; Demand; Dwellings; Economics; Electricity; Energy; Energy resources; Equipment; Fuel consumption; Fuels; Imports; Industries; Natural gas; Natural resources; Nuclear power generation; Safety equipment; Trade; Transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Energy crisis
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Environment; Safety and Human Factors; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00048179
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jan 4 1974 12:00AM