The Statistical Association Between Past and Future Accidents and Violations

The predictability of future accidents in terms of past violations or past accidents is investigated by observing a four-year history of accident and violation records of North Carolina drivers. The four-year driving history was divided into two adjacent time intervals, and the relationships were determined between accidents and violations. Other factors considered are driver age and the relative lengths of the two time periods. The results show that past accidents are somewhat better predictors of future accidents than are past violations, in the sense of identifying high risk driver groups. In either case, however, the vast majority of all accidents occurring in a period of time (one, two or three years) involve drivers having no accidents or violations in the previous period. Driver age seems to have little effect with respect to the relationships between past and future driving performance with the exception that the performance of the youngest group of drivers seems to be slightly more unpredictable.

• Record URL:
  http://www.hsrc.unc.edu/research_library/bibliography_pre1990.cfm
• Corporate Authors:

  University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

  Highway Safety Research Center
  Chapel Hill, NC  United States  27599
• Authors:
  • Stewart, J Richard
  • Campbell, B J
• Publication Date: 1972-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Appendices; Figures; Tables;
• Pagination: 52p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash risk forecasting; High risk drivers; Statistical analysis; Traffic crashes; Traffic safety; Traffic violations
• Geographic Terms: North Carolina
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies; I80: Accident Studies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01115394
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 25 2008 7:33AM