Economic and Highway Demand Growth in China: 1990-2004

Growth during the Post-Reform Period in Mainland China (i.e., since 1978) has been remarkable. While the population has grown at an annual rate of just over 1%, the gross domestic product (GDP) has grown by about 9% annually. The paper investigates the concurrent growth in China’s highway demand between 1990 and 2004. The country was divided into six regional clusters, identified by similar levels of consumption, highway capacities, and other factors, to facilitate the analysis and enable comparisons. One cluster, for example, consists of municipalities (Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin), while another includes selected coastal provinces. Freight and passenger highway demand exhibited an inelastic response (-1 < E < 1) to changes in the GDP in all of the regions, with the exception of passenger demand in the municipalities, which had an elastic response (E > 1). A set of Grey models, developed from 1992-1997 data, were used to estimate elasticities between 1998 and 2004. None of the models were able to capture the volatility of the highway demand response, although four of the models correctly predicted the elasticity category (elastic or inelastic) for most of the years. The models may have a useful life, after which updated models need to be developed based on new data. A potential four-year time lag between a change in the GDP and a highway demand response was suggested by the data. A deeper analysis would consider the highway supply response to GDP growth, as well as the concurrent demand for competing modes of transport. Highway demand may, for example, be constrained by a limited highway supply, leading to inelastic responses.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Cottrell, Wayne D
  • Mu, Sichun
  • Chen, Yali
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2008-1-13 to 2008-1-17
• Date: 2008

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: DVD
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: 16p
• Monograph Title: TRB 87th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Economic development; Economic growth; Gross domestic product; Highway capacity; Highway design; International relations; Population growth; Travel demand
• Geographic Terms: China
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01091593
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 08-0445
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 23 2008 9:26AM