FORECASTING AUTO OWNERSHIP AND MODE CHOICE FOR U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS. VOLUME 1

The report describes a multivariate model of auto ownership and mode choice, as well as its use in forecasting 1990 travel behavior, for a sample of 346,000 households and 407,000 workers in the largest 125 SMSAs. Household auto ownership decisions depend on family type and composition, household income, residential location, workplace location, highway and transit service levels, and measures of overall urban spatial structure for each SMSA. Given the number of cars owned and the variables used to explain auto ownership, each worker in the household selects one of five worktrip modes. The research advances the field of travel demand forecasting by considering auto ownership and mode choice behavior in a large number of metropolitan areas; by quantifying how metropolitan land use patterns affect auto ownership and use; by documenting the influence of racial discrimination on black household behavior; and by analyzing walk to work trips. The 1990 projections indicate that increases in household income will have the most significant impact on urban travel behavior, with changes in household composition and size and land use patterns having smaller effects.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Portions of this document are not fully legible. See also Volume 2, PB-291373.
• Corporate Authors:

  Harvard University

  Department of City and Regional Planning, Gund Hall
  Cambridge, MA  United States  02138

  Department of Transportation

  Office of University Research, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Kain, J F
  • Fauth, G R
  • Zax, J
• Publication Date: 1978-12

Media Info

• Pagination: 186 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Automobiles; Commuting; Forecasting; Land use; Mathematical models; Metropolitan areas; Mode choice; Moisture content; Socioeconomic factors; Travel demand; Travel patterns; Urban areas
• Old TRIS Terms: Modal selection; Natural water content
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00191682
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: DOT/RSPA/DPB50-78/21Final Rpt.
• Contract Numbers: DOT-OS-30099
• Files: NTIS, TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Jun 13 1981 12:00AM