A meta-model for passenger transport in Europe integrating existing models

In the EXPEDITE project, carried out for the European Commission, such a model was developed and applied in forecasting and policy simulation. This model, called the 'EXPEDITE meta-model', integrates outcomes of five national passenger transport models and four national freight models and results of other European models. The meta-model is not intended to replace detailed network-based models, but to offer the possibility of a quick scan for the effects of a large number of policy measures. A large number of runs have been carried out (up to 80 runs per contributing model). This meta-model for passenger transport also includes area-wide speed-flow curves to take account of the feedback effect of changes in congestion due to policies that change the amount of car use. The scenario-forecast results for years up to 2020 generated by EXPEDITE for this project were restricted to one single Reference Scenario, a scenario in which the population, economy, and car-ownership were assumed to grow more or less in line with past trends in the 1990s. Costs of travel were assumed unchanged from 1995, and it was assumed that provision of new road capacity would be such as to maintain speeds at 1995 levels. Changing any of these assumptions would change our output travel demand consequences. The EXPEDITE meta-model gives for this Reference Scenario large increases in car-kilometres in Eastern European countries (more than doubling percentage-wise in some countries between 1995 and 2020), and a relative stability in the countries of the existing EU15. The underlying forecasts can be interrogated in a multitude of ways, to look at the types of driver and sorts of journey causing the increases in car travel. Policies penalizing motorists through parking or road charging were most effective. Cost internalisation, fuel price increases and lower maximum speeds were next most effective. Policies to affect land use by densification, or making public transport more attractive, were ineffective. The paper discusses the methodology and main results (both for the Reference Forecast for 2020 and for many policy measures) of the EXPEDITE meta-model for passenger transport. For the covering abstract see ITRD E126595.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0860503429
• Authors:
  • GUNN, H
  • JONG, G
• Publication Date: 2003

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 19pp
• Monograph Title: Risk aversion and route choice decisions
• Serial:
  • PROCEEDINGS OF THE EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCE (ETC) 2003 HELD 8-10 OCTOBER 2003, STRASBOURG, FRANCE
  • Publisher: Association for European Transport (AET)
  • ISSN: 1474-9122

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Conferences; Demand; Economics; Forecasting; Fuels; Improvements; Land use; Mathematical models; Operating costs; Parking; Policy; Public transit; Road pricing; Simulation; Speed; Traffic congestion; Transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Decreases; Use
• ITRD Terms: 1243: Car; 8525: Conference; 632: Congestion (traffic); 9009: Decrease; 285: Demand (econ); 263: Economics of transport; 132: Forecast; 3850: Fuel; 9108: Improvement; 356: Land use; 6473: Mathematical model; 221: Operating costs; 955: Parking; 173: Policy; 744: Public transport; 240: Road pricing; 9103: Simulation; 5408: Speed; 1155: Transport; 9084: Use
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Transportation (General); Vehicles and Equipment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I96: Vehicle Operating Costs;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01013018
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-86050-342-9
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Dec 22 2005 8:22AM