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https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27432/critical-issues-in-transportation-for-2024-and-beyond

PMSPro deterioration models 2004

PMSPro:n kuntoennustemallit 2004

The PMSPro-system of the Finnish Road Administration is used for selection and programming of maintenance works. The system needs different models to describe the road condition and its deterioration over time due to traffic and climate. Since the introduction of a new Road Surface Monitoring (RSM)-vehicle in 2003, the deterioration models need to be revised and updated accordingly. The objective of this study was to develop deterioration models and maintenance effect models for paved roads to be used in the PMSPro-system. Deterioration models were developed for three performance indicators: unevenness, rut depth and distress index, tested separately for asphalt pavements, soft asphalt pavements and surface treated gravel roads. The data set for modelling was formed by combining data from the Condition Data Bank and Road Data Bank of the Finnish Road Administration from 1994-2003. Time series of 100-meter sections were used for determining deterioration rate for each performance indicator. Based on the data set, none of the pavement properties explained the deterioration rate. In the proposed models, the present deterioration rate explains the future deterioration rate 1.3 years ahead. The present deterioration rate is calculated by dividing the measured condition by the age of the pavement since last maintenance action. Quality checks of the developed models were carried out by comparing predicted condition to observed condition using the new and existing models and an independent data set. In short, it can be said that when the new unevenness and distress index models are used, the deviation between predicted and observed condition is less than the existing models. The project team therefore recommends the use of new unevenness and distress index models in the PMSPro-system. The model parameters should be updated when more data have been collected by the new RSM-vehicle. On the contrary, the existing rut depth models result in less deviation between the predicted and observed values close to maintenance threshold values than the new models. The project team therefore recommends retaining the existing models in the PMSPro-system, until more data using the new RSM-vehicle is obtained by 2005. The proposed models effect on maintenance selection criteria in the PMSPro-system needs to be investigated in the future. Maintenance measures will affect the pavement performance after works. Due to the short history of coding various maintenance works into the data banks, the assumed different deterioration rates after different maintenance works could not be verified. More accurate recording of maintenance works should allow this kind of analysis in the future years. In this study, default models for performance indicator values and their deterioration rates after maintenance were developed. The default models are to be used until the first measurement after maintenance works. The default models for unevenness and rut depth after works were developed separately for the various pavement types. The default value of the distress index after maintenance works is always zero. The default deterioration rates were also developed for all three performance indicators. This report may be found at http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/julkaisut/pdf/3200921-vpmspro_kuntoennustemallit.pdf

Language

  • Finnish

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01011832
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: TRL
  • ISBN: 951-803-458-3
  • Files: ITRD
  • Created Date: Dec 20 2005 11:24AM