SCENARIOS AND STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY. EXPLORATIONS IN THE FIELD OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT

The aim of this study was to develop and use scenario approaches and gaming as planning tools, and thereby make a contribution to both planning and research, especially in the areas of application of (1) crisis management and emergency planning and (2) sustainable transport. The analysis of uncertainty and the design of tools to cope with it are core contributions. The thesis consists of four papers. In paper 1 the connection between gaming and tacit knowledge is examined. Based on cases and literature, concepts and typologies that would permit a more accurate analysis of the relationship between purpose, design and validity of games are suggested. In paper 2 the niche for backcasting is identified. Basic assumptions behind it are compared to those behind traditional forecasting. Papers 3 and 4 describe the development and use of mixed future study methodologies. In paper 3 scenarios for a decision support tool for transport policy analysts at the European and national levels are developed. In addition a methodology for the linking of scenarios to a modelling system in such a way that relevant uncertainties could be highlighted is suggested. In paper 4 the main task was to construct scenarios for achieving sustainable mobility and thereby give an input to policy development at the European Commission and at the national level. A combination of external scenarios and backcasting is developed that allows an analysis of how strategies for achieving visionary goals can be adapted to various external developments. In the introductory part of the thesis, a conceptual framework and a perspective on planning, future studies and uncertainty is presented. Structural uncertainty is a key concept. It prevails when there is no reliable model of the systems dynamics that permits predictions over the time frame of interest. In contrast, quantitative uncertainty refers to the development of external variables, while a reliable predictive model of the systems dynamics is assumed to exist. Whereas predictive modelling, probabilistic approaches and sensitivity testing are suitable in the case of quantitative uncertainty, scenario approaches and sometimes games theory are the better choice in the face of structural uncertainty. (A)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9173230685
• Corporate Authors:

  KUNGLIGA TEKNISKA HOEGSKOLAN, INFRASTRUKTUR

  STOCKHOLM,   Sweden  SE-100 44
• Authors:
  • DREBORG, K H
• Publication Date: 2004

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: 60+a p.
• Serial:
  • TRITA-INFRA
  • Issue Number: 04-001
  • Publisher: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
  • ISSN: 1651-0216

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decision making; Emergencies; Forecasting; Game theory; Knowledge; Planning; Sustainable development; Theses; Transportation
• ITRD Terms: 2209: Comprehension; 2248: Decision process; 2184: Emergency; 132: Forecast; 6547: Games theory; 143: Planning; 2427: Sustainability; 8597: Thesis; 1155: Transport
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00979413
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)
• ISBN: 91-7323-068-5
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Oct 6 2004 12:00AM