EVALUATING THE ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF MEASURES TO REDUCE AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS

The continuing growth in civil aviation activity is generally accepted to be contributing to global warming due to aircraft emissions in the atmosphere. Besides these global climate problems local air quality at airports becomes more and more apparent. The Dutch government commissioned Project AERO (Aviation Emissions and Evaluation of Reduction Options) to evaluate fiscal, regulatory, operational and technical measures to reduce air traffic impacts on the atmosphere. A key feature of Project AERO is to analyse the trade-off of such measures against their adverse implications for the aviation industry, consumers and national economies. Project AERO has created a forecasting system of future world-wide aviation activity, with its environmental and economic impacts, to test a wide range of policy measures. The system's underlying forecasts are largely driven by demand growth, but costs imposed on airline operation by policy measures are modelled to feed back to fares, and hence the restraint of demand and capacity growth, and airline profitability. Aircraft technology development is explicitly represented, and emission volumes, their spatial distribution and atmospheric impacts are also modelled. During 2000 the AERO modelling system was used extensively to evaluate the potential for market-based measures (notably taxes/charges and emission trading) for the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP). In a further study for the Dutch government, a wider range of global, regional and local policy options were evaluated, with specific attention being paid to the impact on the Netherlands. The modelling system has previously been employed on behalf of the EU to examine the effects of lifting the exemption of civil aviation kerosene from taxation. Furthermore AERO was used for a study towards the allocation of international CO2 emissions to countries. The analysis for CAEP has illustrated that in the medium term (to 2010) the significant reductions in emissions growth required to meet the Kyoto targets from the aviation sector alone can only be achieved through large reductions in demand growth, plus modernisation of the fleet. In the longer term the impacts of technology improvements are shown to be more significant, although substantial reductions in demand growth would still be required. However, if the aviation sector can engage in emission trading with other sectors, then this would allow the aviation sector to continue to achieve much of its expected growth over the next 20 years. The paper describes the policy analysis completed in 2000, focussing on the results and conclusions, but also providing an overview of the key principles of the AERO modelling system and its analysis potential. For the covering abstract see ITRD E115303.

• Record URL:
  http://abstracts.aetransport.org/conference/index/id/7
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0860503399
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC EDUCATION AND RESEARCH SERVICES LTD

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• Authors:
  • HANCOX, R
  • LOWE, S
  • PULLES, H
  • VAN VELZEN, A
  • BAARSE, G
• Conference:
  • PROCEEDINGS OF THE AET EUROPEAN TRANSPORT CONFERENCE, HELD 10-12 SEPTEMBER, 2001, HOMERTON COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE, UK - CD-ROM
• Publication Date: 2001

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: 22 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air; Aircraft; Environment; Pollutants; Pollution
• Uncontrolled Terms: Decreases
• ITRD Terms: 6714: Air; 1258: Aircraft; 9009: Decrease; 2442: Emission; 2455: Environment; 2453: Pollution
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Environment; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00934878
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-86050-339-9
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Dec 4 2002 12:00AM