A SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION MODEL FOR AIR TRAFFIC IN THE NEW YORK AREA

Air traffic management is a complex and multifaceted problem. In recent years, the growing concerns of delay and congestion are echoed among passengers, airlines and federal agencies. Many studies and efforts have been devoted to the understanding of causal relationships between air traffic performance and contributing factors. In this paper, a model is proposed based on the supply and demand concepts in economic theory. The authors formulate a structural equation model to explain the dynamic relations of delay, traffic count and weather variables among three major airports in the New York region. The model is illustrated with hourly aggregate data on traffic from the Federal Aviation Administration, surface observations and radar scan of precipitation from the National Oceanographic Atmospheric Administration. The model describes air traffic performance and predicts hold-out samples quite well. The model also demonstrates the contribution of current and past weather information in the prediction. Moreover, the model enables the study of the propagation effect of the traffic performance measures across different airports.

  • Corporate Authors:

    University of Nebraska, Omaha

    Aviation Institute, 60th and Dodge Street
    Omaha, NE  USA  68182-0508
  • Authors:
    • Lu, I L
    • Peixoto, J
    • Taam, W
  • Conference:
  • Publication Date: 2003-7

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 40p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00977982
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 29 2004 12:00AM