POINT OF VIEW: URBAN RAIL TRANSIT SYSTEMS. PLAYING THE RAIL TRANSIT FORECASTING GAME
This article, in support of the Urban Mass Transportation Administration report "Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Costs" (1989), which meticulously documents the bias in urban rail transit forecasts, examines the motive, opportunity, and means for biased forecasting, especially where the rail transit alternative is concerned. In conclusion, the author calls for self-correcting discipline in the forecasting business, where consultants should be required to bond their forecasts: if they are wrong by more than x percent, they have to give back their fees, or even better, they have to build and operate the rail system at the cost they have projected.
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Availability:
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Supplemental Notes:
- Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Lave, C A
- Publication Date: 1991-9
Media Info
- Features: Photos; References;
- Pagination: p. 10-12
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Serial:
- TR News
- Issue Number: 156
- Publisher: Transportation Research Board
- ISSN: 0738-6826
- Serial URL: https://doi.org/10.17226/895
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Accuracy; Cost estimating; Estimates; Forecasting; Rail transit; Ridership; Urban transit
- Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00616512
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: NTL, TRIS, TRB
- Created Date: Nov 30 1991 12:00AM