MULTIVARIATE TIME-SERIES MODEL OF TRANSIT RIDERSHIP BASED ON HISTORICAL, AGGREGATE DATA: THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF HONOLULU (WITH DISCUSSION AND CLOSURE)

Historical data on a small number of economic, demographic, and transportation variables from 1958 to 1986 were analyzed by multiple regression techniques to develop two models for forecasting transit ridership in Honolulu. A model predicting revenue trips and another for linked trips were consistent in their determination that the same five variables could account for 97 to 98 percent of the variance in bus ridership over this 29-year period. The four major variables were per capita income, employment, fares, and size of bus fleet, with a dummy variable included for strikes. The income elasticity for transit demand was found to be negative, indicating that mass transit is an inferior good. The model forecasts a continuing decline in bus ridership for Honolulu, mainly caused by this effect. The forecasting models for rapid transit ridership for Honolulu are examined, and alternative approaches to assessing demand elasticities are discussed. The advantages of using aggregate historical data and regression analyses for developing inexpensive forecasting models from time series data are emphasized.

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1991/1297/1297-010.pdf
• Record URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=MULTIVARIATE+TIME-SERIES+MODEL+OF+TRANSIT+RIDERSHIP+BASED+ON+HISTORICAL%2C+AGGREGATE+DATA%3A+THE+PAST%2C+PRESENT+AND+FUTURE+OF+HONOLULU+(WITH+DISCUSSION+AND+CLOSURE)&author=M.+McLeod+Jr&author=K.+Flannelly&author=L.+Flannelly&author=R.+Behnke&publication_year=1991
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1297, Public Transit Research: Management and Planning 1991. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • McLeod Jr, Malcolm S
  • Flannelly, Kevin J
  • Flannelly, Laura
  • Behnke, Robert W
• Discussers:
  • Davidson, William A
• Publication Date: 1991

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: p. 76-84
• Monograph Title: Public transit research: management and planning 1991
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 1297
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bus transit; Demand; Elasticity (Mechanics); Employment; Fares; Fleet management; Forecasting; History; Income; Mathematical models; Multiple regression analysis; Multivariate analysis; Public transit; Rapid transit; Ridership; Strikes; Time series; Time series analysis; Transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Fleet size; Transportation models
• Geographic Terms: Honolulu (Hawaii)
• Old TRIS Terms: Bus transportation (Intracity); Multiple regression
• Subject Areas: History; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00615778
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309051037
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 30 1991 12:00AM