HOW TO TAKE THE HIT-AND-MISS OUT OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING

The article reports a paper given by andrew street, ex of the British road federation, at a British aggregates construction materials industry's seminar in the month after the m25 was officially opened. Heavy criticism was delivered on existing forecasting methodology and cost benefit analysis (coba) techniques, on the basis of an analysis by the national audit office. Disinterest by the Department of Transport is suggested, and the danger of using averages which conceal peaks and troughs is illustrated. If more emphasis on environmental acceptance and less on net present value was added to the existing coba techniques these would be more likely to provide accurate forecasts.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00396303
• Corporate Authors:

  Reed Business Information, Limited

  Quadrant House, The Quadrant
  Brighton Road
  Sutton, Surrey  United Kingdom  SM2 5AS
• Authors:
  • RIDOUT, G
• Publication Date: 1986-11-20

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 12-4
• Serial:
  • SURVEYOR
  • Volume: 167
  • Issue Number: 4921
  • Publisher: Hemming Group, Limited
  • ISSN: 0039-6303

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Benefit cost analysis; Computer programs; Errors; Federal government; Forecasting; Freeways; Highway capacity; Traffic flow
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• ITRD Terms: 643: Capacity (road, footway); 226: Cost benefit analysis; 6440: Error; 132: Forecast; 183: Government (national); 2752: Motorway; 8645: Software; 671: Traffic flow; 8119: United Kingdom
• Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00483157
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: May 31 1989 12:00AM