SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK (U.S.)

The base-case U.S. energy outlook for the remainder of 1980 calls for a gross energy consumption decline of 2.7% to a level of 76.8 quadrillion Btu; consumption in the first half of 1981 is expected to be 3.8% below energy use in the first half of 1980. Petroleum consumption in 1980 is expected to decrease by approximately 7%; by mid-1981, the rate of decline will probably moderate due to a rebound in economic growth and leveling of real fuel prices. Domestic crude oil production is projected to remain almost level in 1980, at about 8.55 million barrels per day (MMB/D), with total domestic hydrocarbon liquids down by about 0.8%, averaging 10.64 MMB/D. Motor gasoline supplies at the beginning of the summer driving season should be sufficient. Distillate fuel oil stocks will be equal to levels at the start of the last two heating seasons. Gross oil imports will be down 16% in 1980 to 6.97 MMB/D, while the total cost of these imports is projected to rise 40%, to about $84 billion. During 1980, natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 1.6%, coal use by 6.4%, and nuclear generation by 4.5%. The combined sensitivities of total petroleum use to prices, weather, income, and consumer response to gasoline prices indicate a range of 16.7 to 17.5 MMB/D for total petroleum use in 1980, with total net petroleum imports ranging from 6.1 to 6.9 MMB/D.

• Corporate Authors:

  Department of Energy

  Short-Term Analysis Division
  Washington, DC  United States  20585
• Authors:
  • Emerson, F
  • CHU, C
  • Gamson, N
  • Hartmann, J
  • Hickman, G
  • Wegrzynowicz, C
  • Sitzer, S
• Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: 47 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Coal; Distillates; Energy consumption; Gasoline; Imports; Natural gas; Nuclear energy; Petroleum; Petroleum refining; Production; Time duration
• Uncontrolled Terms: Oil production; Short term
• Subject Areas: Energy; Geotechnology; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00379659
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
• Report/Paper Numbers: DOE/EIA-0202/3, HS-030 242
• Files: HSL, USDOT
• Created Date: Dec 30 1983 12:00AM