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https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27432/critical-issues-in-transportation-for-2024-and-beyond

TRANSIT USE AND GASOLINE SHORTAGES

This report uses a representative sample of 66 U.S. urbanized areas to examine the relationship between gasoline supply and transit ridership during the second and third quarters of 1979. An overview of the effect of the 1979 gasoline shortfall on transit ridership indicates that ridership increased by 5.1 percent over the same period in 1978. Largest percentage increases in ridership were seen in Western urbanized areas and small urban areas. Cross elasticities of transit ridership with respect to gasoline supply are calculated for various categories broken down by region and system size. The measure used for these calculations is arc elasticity. The cross elasticities varied from -0.45 for large systems in the Northeast to -4.99 for small systems in thee West, with a cross elasticity for the entire sample of -0.75. The role of transit in alleviating the impact of the 1979 energy crisis is found to be minor: gasoline savings due to transit patronage increases amounted to less than 5% of the decrease in gasoline sales, although transit played a more significant role in a few urbanized areas. Factors are developed which can be applied to forecasts of transit ridership to adjust for the effect of future gasoline shortfalls. With these, ridership increases and gasoline savings attributable to transit in future energy crises can be calculated. For each category, typical percentage ridership increases and gasoline savings are estimated for a variety of energy futures. Transit cannot be expected to play a major role in an energy emergency. Further research is indicated in quantifying the effect of transit system capacity in a crisis situation.

Media Info

  • Features: Appendices; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 74 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00366959
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Tech Rpt.
  • Files: TRIS, STATEDOT
  • Created Date: Oct 30 1982 12:00AM