SHORT-TERM COAL DEMAND MODEL. TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM TM/ESA/78-01

The Coal Analysis Division of the Office of Energy Source Analysis of Energy Information Administration has developed a Short Term Coal Demand Model (STCDM) for use by the Federal Government and interested outside groups. This model provides quarterly forecasts of electrical generation and coal consumption for three years at the state level. This report summarizes the development and design of the model. The electric utility sector is the largest consumer of coal, accounting for approximately 75% of the total demand for bituminous coal in recent years. Consequently, accurate modeling of this sector is essential for forecasting the demand for coal. Various econometric problems and structural irregularities exist, however, that must be taken into account in the final specification. The demand for coal by electric utilities is dependent on the demand for electricity, coal-fired generating capacity, and the relative costs of generating electricity using alternate boiler fuels. Thus, as the demand for electrical energy increases, for whatever reason, the demand for coal used to generate electrical energy would also be expected to increase. Many factors affecting the decisions of electric utilities in their choice of fuel mix and operating options cannot be easily quantified. Some examples are given. (ERA citation 04:052528)

• Corporate Authors:

  Energy Information Administration

  Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW
  Washington, DC  United States  20585
• Authors:
  • Cohen, B N
  • Mabee, J S
  • Uri, N D
• Publication Date: 1977-11

Media Info

• Pagination: 22 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Coal; Coal industry; Coke; Econometric models; Electric power generation; Environmental protection; Forecasting; Freight traffic; Public utilities; Traffic forecasting
• Uncontrolled Terms: Utilities
• Old TRIS Terms: Coke traffic
• Subject Areas: Energy; Environment; Freight Transportation; Railroads;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00317719
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 22 1980 12:00AM