PROBABILITIES OF VERTICAL OVERLAP: A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Because of the potential increase in traffic at FL 290 and above, both current and alternative vertical separation standards are being reviewed. A plan to collect data on the vertical navigational performance of aircraft is also contemplated. This report documents a sensitivity analysis carried out to assess how different assumptions about the probability distribution of 'total vertical error' affect the probability of vertical overlap. The four factors affecting the probability of vertical overlap which are examined in this study are: the functional form of the vertical-error distribution function; the standard deviation of this probability distribution; the vertical dimensions of the aircraft; and the vertical separation standard. Probabilities of vertical overlap were computed over a range of possibilities for each of these four factors in order to discern the effect of each factor. A final section discusses the findings of this study and draws some conclusions.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Sponsored in part by Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Systems Engineering Management.
• Corporate Authors:

  National Bureau of Standards

  Gaithersburg, MD  United States 

  Federal Aviation Administration

  William J. Hughes Technical Center, Airport Technology Research and Development Branch
  Atlantic City International Airport
  Atlantic City, NJ  United States  08405
• Authors:
  • Hung, H K
  • GILSINN, J F
  • Hoffman, K L
• Publication Date: 1980-3

Media Info

• Pagination: 72 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air traffic; Air traffic control; Aviation safety; Crash avoidance systems; Distributions (Statistics); Errors; Flight paths; Probability; Standard deviation
• Old TRIS Terms: Probable error
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Operations and Traffic Management;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00313624
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: NBSIR-80-1990
• Files: NTIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Jun 26 2003 12:00AM