ESTIMATION OF MODAL CHOICE ELASTICITIES

This thesis was submitted in partial fulfilment of the degree of Bachelor of Science in Applied Geography, University of New South Wales. It determines the responsiveness of the modal choice process of a sample of commuters to changes in the travel times and costs associated with the journey to work. A binary disaggregate, stochastic model of the modal choice process was constructed using logit analysis. This model estimated the probability of choosing a particular mode of transport, in this case the car, in terms of the transportation system characteristics of the car and the alternative mode, rail. The model was then stratified by the income of the traveller, the destination of the trip and the distance travelled in order to account for the effects of socioeconomic status and situational factors on modal choice behaviour. Modal choice elasticities with respect to travel times and costs were then calculated for each of the stratified models, and in this way the responsiveness of the commuters to changes in travel times and costs was estimated. The conclusion of this thesis is that, of the transportation system characteristics examined, modal choice behaviour is most responsive to linehaul travel cost. Therefore, if planners are seeking to influence modal choice behaviour they should do so via policies based on the manipulation of linehaul travel cost. (TRRL)

• Corporate Authors:

  University of New South Wales

  School of Geography, Anzac Parade
  Kensington, New South Wales  Australia  2033
• Authors:
  • Lynch, K E
• Publication Date: 1977

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 78 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile travel; Automobiles; Business districts; Commuters; Costs; Disaggregate analysis; Elasticity (Mechanics); Mathematical models; Modal diversion; Modal split; Mode choice; Origin and destination; Railroad transportation; Stochastic processes; Theses; Travel budgets; Travel costs; Travel time; Trip length; Urban areas; Work trips
• Uncontrolled Terms: Selection
• Old TRIS Terms: Disaggregate models; Modal selection
• ITRD Terms: 302: Business district; 1243: Car; 224: Cost; 697: Journey time; 621: Journey to work; 6473: Mathematical model; 675: Modal split; 687: Origin destination traffic; 9072: Selection; 8597: Thesis; 313: Urban area
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Finance; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; Society; I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00310408
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Report/Paper Numbers: Monograph
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 26 1980 12:00AM