Sketch Model for Estimating Station Level Ridership for LRT

The City of Edmonton aims to undertake an evidence-based approach to prioritize its 2047 unfunded LRT network for implementation. The Regional Travel Model (RTM) developed by the City does not explicitly model LRT as a separate mode and in general, like other regional-scaled models, is limited in its ability to accurately reflect station-level patterns. On the other hand, a Direct Ridership Model (DRM) estimates ridership as a function of the station’s environment and transit service attributes. A DRM can be used as complementary to the traditional four-step models like the RTM to provide a better understanding at a local level, which a system-wide analysis cannot provide. It also provides significantly greater flexibility than a RTM for evaluating different land use and service scenarios, and with minimal calibration, is transferable to other major urban areas. In this study, we developed a DRM of LRT stations using data collected for 15 existing stations in the City of Edmonton straddling over two horizon years. Individual DRMs were developed for the a.m. and p.m. peak periods after an assessment of the available data. The results indicate that population, employment, and post-secondary enrollment within a 1000m buffer around each station; along with, bus frequency, distance to CBD, parking spaces, and CBD stations were statistically significant variables. Five methods to expand the peak period station level boarding to daily estimates were also developed to understand the potential range of daily forecasts the City could expect to experience in the future.

• Record URL:
  http://tac-atc.ca/sites/tac-atc.ca/files/conf_papers/duggal.pdf
• 
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Association of Canada (TAC)

  401-1111 Prince of Wales Drive
  Ottawa, Ontario  Canada 
• Authors:
  • Duggal, M
  • Radakovic, N
  • BHOWMICK, A
  • Datla, S
• Conference:
  • TAC 2016: Efficient Transportation - Managing the Demand - 2016 Conference and Exhibition of the Transportation Association of Canada
• Publication Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Pagination: 1 PDF file, 208 KB, 9p.
• Monograph Title: TAC 2016: Efficient Transportation - Managing the Demand - 2016 Conference and Exhibition of the Transportation Association of Canada

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Conferences; Demand; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Public transit; Railroad stations; Transportation modes; Trolley cars; Urban areas
• Uncontrolled Terms: Selection; Use
• Geographic Terms: Canada
• ITRD Terms: 8018: Canada; 8525: Conference; 285: Demand (econ); 132: Forecast; 6473: Mathematical model; 744: Public transport; 9072: Selection; 1095: Station (railway); 1284: Tram; 1145: Transport mode; 313: Urban area; 9084: Use
• Subject Areas: Public Transportation; Terminals and Facilities; I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01616364
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transportation Association of Canada (TAC)
• Files: ITRD, TAC
• Created Date: Nov 15 2016 4:53PM