Modeling Green Vehicle Adoption: An Integrated Approach for Policy Evaluation

This paper employs an integrated discrete-continuous car ownership model to jointly forecast households’ future preferences on vehicle type, quantity, usage, and to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The model system is based on a data set collected from a web-based stated preference (SP) survey conducted in 2014 in the State of Maryland. The data contain vehicle purchasing decisions and socio-demographic variables from 456 households who were requested to state their future preferences over a nine-year period (from 2014 to 2022). For each time period, the respondent is given four alternatives including the current vehicle, a new gasoline vehicle, a new hybrid vehicle, and a new electric vehicle. Inter-temporal choices between conventional and “green” vehicles such as hybrid and electric capture dynamics in vehicle type purchase decisions. Short run and medium-long run coefficients are obtained using the first five- year (2014-2018) data, and the entire nine-year data of the dynamic panel. Vehicle GHG emissions are calculated correspondingly. Besides, two “green” taxation policies, gasoline tax and ownership tax for conventional vehicles, are proposed and their impacts on reductions of vehicle usage and emissions are evaluated. The results show that: (a) both taxes reduce annual vehicle miles of travel (VMT) especially in the long run, and have greater impact on the vehicles used less frequently; (b) gasoline taxes is more effective than ownership tax in reducing GHG emissions.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADC70 Standing Committee on Transportation Energy.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Liu, Yan
  • Cirillo, Cinzia
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2016-1-10 to 2016-1-14
• Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 20p
• Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Electric vehicles; Forecasting; Fuel taxes; Greenhouse gases; Households; Hybrid vehicles; Mathematical models; Policy; Pollutants; Stated preferences; Taxes
• Geographic Terms: Maryland
• Subject Areas: Environment; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Vehicles and Equipment; I10: Economics and Administration; I15: Environment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I90: Vehicles;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01589974
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 16-5322
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 8 2016 10:36AM