Evaluation of the USEPA MOVES Model Sensitivity to Ethanol Fuel Blends: A Case Study in Cook County, Illinois

Biofuel production and demand has grown significantly in the United States. Of particular interest are mid-level ethanol-gasoline blends, which have been the focus of recent studies on fuel efficiency and combustion emissions. This study uses the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)'s Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) and the Particulate Matter Index (PMI) developed by researchers at Honda to estimate the emission performances of various mid-level ethanol-gasoline blends. Model parameterizations were performed using fuel formulation inputs measured from commercial fuel samples (E10) taken at several stations in Cook County, IL and splash-blended over a range of ethanol concentrations (E15, E20, E25, and E30). The analyses focus on examining the MOVES model’s sensitivity to changes in parameters, particularly ethanol fuel formulations. The key findings include: (1) when compared to the MOVES default fuel specification, the sampled E10 and E15 fuels exhibit consistent PM emissions; (2) when sampled fuels are parameterized in MOVES, the model predicts PM emissions trends in the same direction as PMI does for samples taken at the same station and of the same ethanol blend; (3) in contrast, across different ethanol blends MOVES predicts equal or higher PM emissions for higher ethanol blends, whereas PMI generally predicts decreasing PM emissions with ethanol addition; and (4) upward trends are found for other pollutants (VOC, NOₓ, and NMHC) for higher ethanol blends modeled in MOVES, which are directionally inconsistent with the recent literature. These initial results show several inconsistencies, which suggest the need for more robust sampling and model investigation.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADC20 Standing Committee on Transportation and Air Quality. Alternate title: Evaluation of U.S. EPA MOVES Model Sensitivity to Ethanol Fuel Blends: Case Study in Cook County, Illinois
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • O'Shea, William
  • Mueller, Steffen
  • Caldwell, Iris
  • Lin, Jane
  • 0000-0001-9861-1974
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2016-1-10 to 2016-1-14
• Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 19p
• Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Ethanol; Fuel mixtures; Particulates
• Identifier Terms: Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES); U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• Geographic Terms: Cook County (Illinois)
• Subject Areas: Energy; Environment; Highways; I15: Environment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01587925
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 16-4146
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 27 2016 5:12PM