Error Propagation in User Equilibrium Traffic Assignment: Comparing an Analytical Sensitivity-Based Method with a Simulation-Based Method

Two error sources that contribute significantly to the output error of transportation demand models are the model specification error and the input measurement error. In the present study, the specification error of a user equilibrium traffic assignment (UETA) is measured using validation techniques. Moreover, the propagation of origin-destination (O-D) demand measurement errors to the UETA output is investigated using two different methods: an analytical sensitivity-based method and a simulation-based method. The analytical method uses the results of a sensitivity analysis (SA) on the UETA program, while the simulation-based method runs a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The proposed method for error propagation is applied to an illustrative example to address the three main aims: the number of samples that ensure a reasonably accurate result for the MCS method, the size of the O-D demand measurement error for which the analytical method is valid, and the share of the path flow rate variance and covariance from the variance of the O-D demand measurement error.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Standing Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Rezaee, Hojjat
  • Mesbah, Mahmoud
  • Hickman, Mark
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2016-1-10 to 2016-1-14
• Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 16p
• Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Errors; Monte Carlo method; Origin and destination; Sensitivity analysis; Traffic assignment; Travel demand; Validation
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01593342
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 16-3082
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 9 2016 3:58PM