Error Propagation in User Equilibrium Traffic Assignment: Comparing an Analytical Sensitivity-Based Method with a Simulation-Based Method

Two error sources that contribute significantly to the output error of transportation demand models are the model specification error and the input measurement error. In the present study, the specification error of a user equilibrium traffic assignment (UETA) is measured using validation techniques. Moreover, the propagation of origin-destination (O-D) demand measurement errors to the UETA output is investigated using two different methods: an analytical sensitivity-based method and a simulation-based method. The analytical method uses the results of a sensitivity analysis (SA) on the UETA program, while the simulation-based method runs a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The proposed method for error propagation is applied to an illustrative example to address the three main aims: the number of samples that ensure a reasonably accurate result for the MCS method, the size of the O-D demand measurement error for which the analytical method is valid, and the share of the path flow rate variance and covariance from the variance of the O-D demand measurement error.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 16p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01593342
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 16-3082
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jan 12 2016 5:23PM