A Method for Estimating Urban Travel Speed in Winter Using Panel Data Models

The travel speed in winter is affected not only by the road geometric design but also by the snowfall, snow depth, temperature, and other weather conditions. The location of this study was a 4.8-km section of the Nishi-5-chome St. arterial in Sapporo, Japan, using data from December 2013 to March 2014 for analysis. In this area, the travel speed is about 5 to 10 km/h slower in winter than in autumn all day. The objective of this study is to develop a method for estimating the travel speed in winter by considering weather conditions and snow removal operations. Panel data analysis was used to determine the relationships among travel speed, weather conditions and snow removal operations. Then, multiple linear regression models were developed and compared in terms of performance. The developed models showed that temperature had a U-shaped relationship with travel speed and that snow depth had a negative correlation with travel speed. Snow removal for road widening had a positive correlation with travel speed. In contrast, fresh snow removal had a negative correlation with travel speed in a two-way fixed-effects model that incorporates time-specific effects but a positive correlation with travel speed in the other panel data models. The proposed methodology might be used for forecasting traffic congestion on urban arterials in winter and for improving winter urban road maintenance strategies.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AH010 Standing Committee on Surface Transportation Weather.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Hong, Sungmin
  • Hagiwara, Toru
  • Lu, Birei
  • Kawasaki, Masakazu
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2016-1-10 to 2016-1-14
• Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 16p
• Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Estimating; Methodology; Multiple regression analysis; Panel studies; Snow removal; Temperature; Traffic speed; Urban areas; Weather conditions; Winter; Winter maintenance
• Geographic Terms: Sapporo (Japan)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; I62: Winter Maintenance;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01591993
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 16-1121
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 29 2016 4:54PM