Estimating Probabilistic Impacts of Catastrophic Network Damage from Earthquakes Using Activity-Based Travel Model

In this paper, the authors present a framework for a probabilistic risk assessment of catastrophic network damage from earthquakes using a practical activity-based travel model. The travel model captures variable demand, non-car travel modes, and interdependencies between the road and transit network, features often missing in probabilistic network risk studies to date. The authors have adapted this model for estimating network performance and regional impacts after catastrophic network damage. They demonstrate the framework with a case study of earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area, including damage to the extensive road and transit networks. For the case study, the authors partnered with the local Master Planning Organization (MPO) to demonstrate the method with an activity-based model used in practice. In addition, while most work to date in the transportation field focuses on a single deterministic earthquake event, the authors apply state-of-the-art seismic risk assessment including a stochastic set of earthquake events, spatially-correlated ground-motion intensity maps, damage maps for bridges and other structures, practical network performance measures, and the probabilistic risk to different communities and households. One result of this framework is quantifying the annual rate of exceeding various levels of loss in accessibility for each community and main socio-economic group in the entire region. The presented method offers a rare level of detail for understanding the potential impacts of earthquakes to travel-related outcomes, and thus informing mitigation efforts and emergency planning.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE40 Critical Transportation Infrastructure Protection.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Transportation Research Board

    500 Fifth Street, NW
    Washington, DC  United States  20001
  • Authors:
    • Miller, Mahalia
    • Cortes, Samuel
    • Ory, Dave
    • Baker, Jack W
  • Conference:
  • Date: 2015


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; Maps; References;
  • Pagination: 19p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01550189
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 15-2366
  • Files: PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jan 16 2015 8:29AM