The Outlook for U.S. Oil Dependence 2014: Is Independence in Sight?
Increased domestic petroleum supply and decreased consumption reduced U.S. dependence on imports from 60% in 2005 to 30% in 2014. Over the same period, world oil prices doubled and have remained near $100 per barrel since 2008. Recent econometric evidence suggests that world oil supply and demand have become less sensitive to the price of oil, enhancing the market power of oil exporting nations. This paper reassesses the current and future importance of oil dependence in light of these recent developments. Taking uncertainty into account, simulations of possible future oil market conditions to 2040 indicate that the costs of oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADC70 Transportation Energy.
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Corporate Authors:
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Authors:
- Greene, David L
- Liu, Changzheng
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2015-1-11 to 2015-1-15
- Date: 2015
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 18p
- Monograph Title: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Crude oil; Demand; Forecasting; Market assessment; Prices; Simulation; Supply; Uncertainty
- Geographic Terms: United States
- Subject Areas: Energy; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01554251
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 15-1545
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Feb 26 2015 9:49AM