Accelerating a Shift from Road to Rail Freight Transport in Germany – Three Scenarios
As a core pillar of its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy the European Commission (EC) envisages shifting 50% of long distance freight transport to rail and inland navigation by 2050. While technical solutions to mitigate GHG emissions are well researched, non-technical policy paths still need further attention. It is in particular unclear, how assumptions on framework conditions impact the result of policy options in such long term forecasts. In this paper the authors therefore look at the performance of a set of measures to achieve a given modal shift target in front of alternative baseline developments of the German economy. The authors chose a 10 percentage point increase of national freight movements on rail to be achieved by 2030. The results found by applying the ASTRA-D system dynamics model indicate that the stronger the economic growth is assumed, the more easy the achievement of targets will be. In this case the authors run into much more serious capacity problems at the railways, but the authors can suspect that under more dynamic economic conditions capacity enlargement measures can be implemented more easily.
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Corporate Authors:
14-20 bd Newton, Cité Descartes, Champs su Marne
77447 Marne la Vallée, France Cedex 2 -
Authors:
- Frey, Kilian
- Hartwig, Johannes
- Doll, Claus
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Conference:
- Transport Research Arena (TRA) 5th Conference: Transport Solutions from Research to Deployment
- Location: Paris , France
- Date: 2014-4-14 to 2014-4-17
- Publication Date: 2014-4
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 10p
- Monograph Title: Transport Research Arena (TRA) 2014 Proceedings
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Economic growth; Environmental impacts; Freight traffic; Greenhouse gases; Gross domestic product; Modal shift; Railroads
- Identifier Terms: European Commission
- Geographic Terms: Germany
- Subject Areas: Environment; Freight Transportation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; I15: Environment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01531312
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: VTI, TRIS, ATRI
- Created Date: Jul 24 2014 3:21PM