The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, the authors estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413067.155
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://www.asce.org/Product.aspx?ID=2147487569&ProductID=192556110
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  1801 Alexander Bell Drive
  Reston, VA  United States  20191-4400
• Authors:
  • Porter, K
  • Jones, L
  • Ross, S
  • Borrero, J
  • Bwarie, J
  • Dykstra, D
  • Geist, E L
  • Johnson, L
  • Kirby, S
  • Long, K
  • Lynett, P
  • Miller, K
  • Mortensen, C
  • Perry, S
  • Plumlee, G
  • Real, C
  • Ritchie, L
  • Scawthorn, C
  • Thio, H K
  • Wein, A
  • Whitmore, P
  • Wilson, R
  • Wood, N
• Conference:
  • Ports '13: 13th Triennial International Conference
  • Location: Seattle Washington, United States
  • Date: 2013-8-25 to 2013-8-28
• Publication Date: 2013-8

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Pagination: pp 1512-1521
• Monograph Title: Ports 2013: Success through Diversification

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Disaster preparedness; Forecasting; Harbors; Loss and damage; Marinas; Ports; Risk management; Tsunamis
• Identifier Terms: Science Application for Risk Reduction; United States Geological Survey
• Geographic Terms: Alaska; Hawaii; Pacific Coast (United States)
• Subject Areas: Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01521942
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780784413067
• Files: TRIS, ASCE
• Created Date: Apr 14 2014 4:35PM