Prediction Method for Freight Volume Based on Residuals Improved GM (1,1) Model
Freight volume prediction is very important for transport industry policy making, and it is a basic work for regional transportation planning. To predict the freight volume more scientifically and rationally, this paper puts forward a freight volume prediction model based on residuals improved GM (1,1) model. To minimize the residuals from traditional GM (1,1) model in freight volume prediction, a new sequence is formulated by using the sum of predicting sequence and the value of residual sequence so as to obtain a residuals improved GM (1,1) model. To ensure the scientific characteristic of the model, the improved model is used in Shaanxi freight volume prediction. The result shows that the average error of residuals improved GM (1,1) model is 10.3%, which is significantly better than the 19.65% of the traditional GM (1,1) model.
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Availability:
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Supplemental Notes:
- © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Corporate Authors:
American Society of Civil Engineers
1801 Alexander Bell Drive
Reston, VA United States 20191-4400 -
Authors:
- Yuan, Changwei
- Lin, Wenxin
- Jiao, Ping
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Conference:
- Fourth International Conference on Transportation Engineering
- Location: Chengdu , China
- Date: 2013-10-19 to 2013-10-20
- Publication Date: 2013-10
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Pagination: pp 140-146
- Monograph Title: ICTE 2013: Safety, Speediness, Intelligence, Low-Carbon, Innovation
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Freight traffic; Mathematical prediction; Traffic volume
- Geographic Terms: China
- Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01505667
- Record Type: Publication
- ISBN: 9780784413159
- Files: TRIS, ASCE
- Created Date: Jan 27 2014 11:27AM