Ordered and Unordered Discrete-Continuous Models: A Comparative Analysis for Household Vehicle Holding and Mileage Travelled Decisions
Integrated models for household vehicle holding and mileage travelled are used for strategic planning and are necessary to analyze policies concerning congestion management, land use, fuel consumption, energy pricing, and pollution. A number of studies have demonstrated that unordered behavioral models perform better than ordered mechanisms for vehicle holding decisions. Those comparative studies have been conducted for the discrete part only and are often of logit type. Probit type models are usually adopted for joint discrete-continuous decisions for the flexibility offered by the multivariate normal to capture correlations across the two independent variables. Ordered probit models are in general preferred to unordered probit for the saving in computational costs deriving from the closed mathematical form of the choice probabilities. In this study, the authors extend to ordered probit a previous discrete-continuous model based on a density estimation approach with unrestricted correlation between the discrete and the continuous parts. A comparative analysis is then performed using data extracted from the 2001 and 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data. Estimation results show that discrete-continuous ordered probit are superior to unordered structures in terms of goodness of fit. Model applications for policy analysis reveals that density and driving cost only affect marginally vehicle holding decisions and annual miles driven. Those results seem to be stable across 2001 and 2009.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Transportation Demand Forecasting.
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
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Authors:
- Cirillo, Cinzia
- Liu, Yangwen
- Tremblay, Jean-Michel
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2013-1-13 to 2013-1-17
- Date: 2013
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: References; Tables;
- Pagination: 17p
- Monograph Title: TRB 92nd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Automobile travel; Choice models; Households; Population density; Probits; Vehicle miles of travel
- Identifier Terms: National Household Travel Survey
- Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01478701
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 13-3965
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Apr 18 2013 8:50AM