Collision Propensity Index for Unsignalized Intersections: Structural Equation Modeling Approach

The objective of this paper is to develop a quantitative collision propensity index (CPI) that captures the overall propensity of a given surrounding environment to cause accidents at un-signalized intersections. Using structural equation modeling, the index can be estimated from observed geometric, vehicular, driver-related, and traffic-related characteristics. Utilizing the California Department of Transportation's data repository, information on 4388 collisions occurring at 2709 different intersections was collected and processed. A statistically significant converging structural equation model was found reflecting the safety impact of different surrounding elements/dimensions on driving behavior: The CPI provides (a) a basis for quantifying the effects of the aforementioned characteristics on traffic safety and/or incident properties, (b) a basis for comparing the differences between the dimensions affecting collision propensity based on different exogenous measures’ classification schemes and (c) ranking the corresponding un-signalized intersections for improved safety performance. The framework and methodology used to develop this index has the potential to support safety policy analysis and decision making.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 20p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 92nd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01477613
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 13-3915
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Feb 5 2013 12:46PM