Demographic Microsimulation Model for Integrated Land Use, Transportation, and Environment Model System

The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) model system is an agent-based microsimulation model that dynamically evolves the urban spatial form, economic structure, demographics and travel behavior over time for the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA). This paper presents the ILUTE Demographic Updating Module (I-DUM), which updates the residential population demographics throughout the simulation. Given a synthetic base population, I-DUM updates the attributes of the agents at each time step. New agents are introduced through birth and in-migration, while agents exit through death and out-migration events. Unions between agents are formed through a marriage market, while a divorce model dissolves existing ones. Transitions to new households are also triggered by a move-out model. In addition to its comprehensive scope, I-DUM is a closed demographic model where social networks are built and maintained throughout the simulation. Maintaining social connections brings some advantages for modeling travel behavior and location choice. I-DUM is being tested against a twenty-year (1986-2006) period using a 100% synthetic GTHA population (4.1 million persons, 1.1 million families, 1.4 million households). The results are compared against historical observations across multiple dimensions. In general, I-DUM exhibits a strong performance, and the authors have confidence that it can maintain the validity of inputs to the other behavioral models in ILUTE. I-DUM's implementation has also been parallelized which brings significant performance improvements. Starting with over 6.5 million agents (which grows past 10 million), the simulation takes just under 10 minutes to complete a twenty-year run.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40(2) Integrated Transportation and Land Use Modeling.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Chingcuanco, Franco
  • Miller, Eric J
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2013-1-13 to 2013-1-17
• Date: 2013

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 16p
• Monograph Title: TRB 92nd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demographics; Land use planning; Microsimulation; Social factors; Travel behavior
• Uncontrolled Terms: Agent based models
• Geographic Terms: Hamilton (Canada); Toronto (Canada)
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01478492
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 13-3445
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Apr 15 2013 1:15PM