Forecasting the Duration of Rail Operation Disturbances

Railway operating disturbances have a significant impact on the satisfaction of both freight and passenger customers. Increasing demand for rail service has led to highly congested networks, which, in spite of improvements in railway scheduling and planning, increases the potential for operating disturbances and impacts. This paper describes research on the handling of railway operation disturbances. The research shows how, particularly for highly congested rail networks such as in urban areas, railway systems engineering can optimize processes to reduce disturbance impacts. The paper describes research on developing a forecasting process for improving the management of rail operation disturbances. This supports a return to the scheduled timetable. The proposed approach was developed by combining statistical correlations and improved procedural considerations. The approach can be used to help guide operating decisions and also be used in incident prevention planning.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AR030 Railroad Operating Technologies.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Schranil, Steffen
  • Weidmann, Ulrich Alois
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2013-1-13 to 2013-1-17
• Date: 2013

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 20p
• Monograph Title: TRB 92nd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Optimization; Service disruption; Statistical analysis; Systems engineering; Timetables; Train operations; Urban areas
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I73: Traffic Control;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01478606
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 13-1455
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Apr 16 2013 4:49PM