Risk-based economic evaluation of pavement construction options

This paper presents a feasibility study looking into the application of @RISK software to perform a full risk-based economic analysis of alternative pavement designs in a New Zealand context. The feasibility study was undertaken by creating a fully automated conceptual economic analysis model in Microsoft EXCEL. @RISK was used to perform a Monte Carlo simulation with random variables describing the time to pavement failure, giving a probability distribution of the total cost of building and maintaining each pavement design. The investigation showed that it is feasible to perform a full risk-based economic analysis of alternative pavement designs using @RISK. The lifecycle cost of a pavement is extremely sensitive to variations in the time to pavement failure, particularly the probability of early failure. The approach developed in this investigation can be extended to incorporate additional sources of uncertainty, including the possibility of liquefaction during large magnitude earthquakes. This can be done by taking account of the uncertainty in the estimates of the likelihood of earthquakes of various magnitudes occurring in the future. The approach could therefore be used to help identify the best strategy for rebuilding roads in cities.

• Record URL:
  http://arrbknowledge.com
• Authors:
  • Giblett, C
  • Nicholson, A
  • Pidwerbesky, B
  • Kuhn, K
• Conference:
  • ARRB Conference, 25th, 2012, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
• Publication Date: 2012-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 20p
• Monograph Title: The Australian Low Carbon Transport Forum: identifying the greenhouse gas abatement potential of the Australian transport sector

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Life cycle costing; Pavement design; Pavement maintenance; Pavement performance; Pavements; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Seismicity; Simulation; Tests for suitability, service and quality
• Uncontrolled Terms: Pavement technology
• Geographic Terms: New Zealand
• ATRI Terms: Life cycle costs; Pavement design; Pavement evaluation; Pavement maintenance; Pavement performance; Risk analysis; Seismic disturbance
• ITRD Terms: 9011: Design (overall design); 5731: Seismic
• Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01454763
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Files: ATRI
• Created Date: Nov 27 2012 3:53PM