A review of car ownership forecasts

This report examines the assumptions underlying the car ownership forecasts in rt 262, "car ownership forecasts 1995-2005", in the light of developments since these assumptions were made. Taken collectively, the assumptions underlying rt 262 are robust. In summary the car ownership forecasts need: 1) slight revision to the model to explicitly incorporate motoring costs. Its present exclusion does not invalidate the long term forecasts, because we cannot make any solid judgements as to how real car prices will develop in future. 2) A 6-10 per cent downward revision due to expected slower population growth. 3) an upward adjustment of about a similar amount due to a slightly improved gnp outlook. The level of uncertainty involved in the methodology of car forecasting is large. We do not consider that conditions have changed so radically in the past two years as to invalidate the forecasts or in aggregate change their assumptions. The forecasts should stand.

• Authors:
  • Casey, J J
• Publication Date: 1987-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 9P

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Automobiles; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Statistics
• ATRI Terms: Car; Forecast; Modelling; Vehicle ownership; Vehicle statistics
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01416770
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Report/Paper Numbers: RT326(A)
• Files: ITRD, ATRI
• Created Date: Aug 24 2012 5:19AM