Synthesizing Target-Year Populations for Input to Travel Demand Models

This study contributes by presenting an empirical assessment of target year populations synthesized with different base-year populations, data-fusion methods, and control tables. Twelve synthetic populations were synthesized for 12 census tracts in Florida. The empirical results indicate the value of synthesizing more accurate base-year populations by accommodating multi-level controls. The impact of the data fusion methodology applied in the target year context is more modest possibly because there are fewer control tables available in the target year. Finally, errors in the target year control tables significantly reduce the accuracy of the synthesized populations. The magnitude of the overall error in the synthesized population appears to be linearly related to the magnitude of the input errors introduced via the control tables. Overall, efforts to accurately synthesize base-year populations and obtain target-year controls can help synthesize good target-year populations.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Transportation Demand Forecasting
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Ma, Lu
  • Srinivasan, Sivaramakrishnan
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
• Date: 2012

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 24p
• Monograph Title: TRB 91st Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Census; Data fusion; Population forecasting; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Census tracts; Synthetic populations
• Geographic Terms: Florida
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01373447
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 12-4355
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Jun 22 2012 1:13PM