Development of a Demand Uncertainty-Based Model to Estimate Network Reliability

This paper provides a discussion on network reliability, which is a subset of resilience. Past research shows how better understanding reliability and identifying ways to improve it can help a system’s response to a disaster, both in the annealing and recovery stages of the four-step resiliency cycle. This study seeks to develop a reliability model that also considers uncertainty. The model estimates reliability for three performance functions (travel time, flow, and consumer surplus), and accounts for uncertainties in both reductions in link-capacity and consumer demand in response to a perturbation/disaster. The model is coded in MATLAB and a numerical example is shown, complete with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. The results show that this model provides accurate predictions of the expected function of the system. Particularly in comparison to those of the deterministic scenarios, the scenarios incorporating uncertainty yield far superior results.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB30 Transportation Network Modeling
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Sobh, Ali Soltani
  • Fishelson, James
  • Heaslip, Kevin
  • El Khoury, John
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
• Date: 2012

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 18p
• Monograph Title: TRB 91st Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Consumers surplus; Disaster preparedness; Network analysis (Planning); Reliability (Statistics); Traffic flow; Travel time; Uncertainty
• Identifier Terms: MATLAB (Computer program)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01363213
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 12-3436
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Feb 22 2012 9:37AM