Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation
Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection’s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance.
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Supplemental Notes:
- Presented at 10th American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, Fort Worth, Texas, September 13-15, 2010.
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Corporate Authors:
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Ames Research Center
Moffett Field, CA United States 94035 -
Authors:
- Russell, Carl
- Publication Date: 2010-9
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References;
- Pagination: 11p
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Air traffic; Air traffic control; Airspace utilization; Probability; Storms; Weather forecasting
- Subject Areas: Aviation; Operations and Traffic Management; I73: Traffic Control;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01358988
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: ARC-E-DAA-TN2100
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Dec 16 2011 2:47PM