Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

• Record URL:
  http://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/publications/2010/DThippha_ATIO2010_Final.pdf
• 
• Corporate Authors:

  National Aeronautics and Space Administration

  Ames Research Center
  Moffett Field, CA  United States  94035

  American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

  1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500
  Reston, VA  United States  20191-4344
• Authors:
  • Thipphavong, David
• Publication Date: 2010-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 12p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air traffic control; Aircraft separation; Airspace (Aeronautics); Aviation safety; Fault tree analysis; Monte Carlo method; Risk assessment; Sensitivity analysis; Simulation
• Identifier Terms: Next Generation Air Transportation System
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01354746
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: ARC-E-DAA-TN2139
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 24 2011 11:03AM