Planning and Policy Impacts of Alternative Public Transport Modeling Methods

This paper examines the consequences of applying alternative analysis methods in appraisal of public transport improvements in large congested metropolitan regions. The authors will focus on public transport pathfinding and assignment although some implications for mode choice analysis are also considered. There is a rather wide variation in the methods that are utilized for public transport pathfinding and assignment around the world and there are also a variety of interesting emerging methods. Among the classical methods are single path, multi-path, and schedule-based shortest path methods. There are also stochastic methods and equilibrium extensions to various static approaches as well as emergent dynamic models and simulation-based approaches. It is not commonly understood that particular public transport pathfinding and assignment methods have their own signatures and potential biases that can confound objective analysis of system improvements. The presence and magnitude of these biases have not been studied. This paper will examine a variety of modeling methods utilizing networks and origin-destination matrices for the New York City Transit system. Modeling this system is particularly challenging due to the variety of transit modes and the numerous alternative routes available to system users. The system is also congested at peak travel periods leading to further complexity in forecasting route utilization and boarding points. The paper relies on a much better data set than has been previously available for the New York City Transit system. These data have been derived from extensive processing of automated fare collection system (AFC) card swipes. AFC system data offers the promise of providing more information about demand and traveler behavior than has not been available. AFC data are generated every day and, with some effort, can be processed for use in planning and modeling efforts. Using implementations of alternative methods, the authors compute informative statistics about system utilization and error levels in matching system counts. The paper examines forecasts of particular system improvement projects and studies how various benefit measures vary with alternative methods. Finally, the paper will identify planning and policy impacts that are influenced by different methodological choices.

• Record URL:
  https://aetransport.org/past-etc-papers/conference-papers-pre-2009/conference-papers-2010
• Corporate Authors:

  Association for European Transport (AET)

  1 Vernon Mews, Vernon Street, West Kensington
  London W14 0RL,    
• Authors:
  • Slavin, H
  • Brandon, J
  • Lam, J
  • Rabinowicz, A
  • Sundaram, S
  • Zhang, Jinglei
• Conference:
  • European Transport Conference, 2010
  • Location: Glasgow Scotland, United Kingdom
  • Date: 2010-10-11 to 2010-10-13
• Publication Date: 2010

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Pagination: v.p.
• Monograph Title: European Transport Conference, 2010 Proceedings

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automatic fare collection; Mode choice; Peak hour traffic; Public transit; Route choice; Smart cards; Traffic forecasting; Travel behavior
• Geographic Terms: New York (New York)
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01353931
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 19 2011 12:52PM