Quantifying the Potentials of a New High Speed Train Using a Gravity Model and GIS
Considering the high speed rail (HSR) activities in the world, the International Union of Railways expects the worldwide HSR network to grow from about 10,000 km in 2008 to almost 37,000 km in 2025. Apart from Western Europe and Eastern Asia, where HSR has been in operation for decades, countries like China and Turkey are beginning to build new HSR lines. In order to improve the economic and environmental performance of HSR operation, the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) has developed a new concept for high speed trains within the project called the Next Generation Train (NGT). This new train is designed as a double deck train running at an operating speed of 400 km/h and a maximum speed of 480 km/h. The NGT is supposed to reduce the energy consumption by 50 % per seat km compared to a German ICE 3 high speed train. Apart from being technically innovative, the NGT is expected to service entirely new HSR routes and to substitute short haul and feeder flights. For quantifying the potentials for operating the NGT, the paper developed a gravity model that predicts rail passenger movements. The model takes into account population size of two places, their gross domestic product and travel time. The paper used German data on rail travel demand and calibrated the gravity model using regression analysis. The paper further applied the model on western Europe. This allows verifying the results of the gravity model by comparing the calculated most frequented relations to the HSR lines planned within the Trans-European Network (TEN) proposed by the EU. Based on this reference scenario, the paper applied the gravity model on other regions in the world, in order to predict potentially new HSR lines for the NGT. Further the paper studied HSR routes for the identified lines. Based on data on orography, population density and surface waters, the paper evaluated the feasibility of possible routes using a geographic information system (GIS). Combining the GIS data with information on construction costs for HSR lines allows assessing the profitability of such HSR routes. By applying this new method, we conclude on worldwide potentials for the new NGT concept.
- Record URL:
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Corporate Authors:
Association for European Transport (AET)
1 Vernon Mews, Vernon Street, West Kensington
London W14 0RL, -
Authors:
- Ehrenberger, Simone
- Winter, Joachim
- Malik, Fabian
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Conference:
- European Transport Conference, 2010
- Location: Glasgow Scotland, United Kingdom
- Date: 2010-10-11 to 2010-10-13
- Publication Date: 2010
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Features: Maps; Photos; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 16p
- Monograph Title: European Transport Conference, 2010 Proceedings
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Geographic information systems; Gravity models; High speed rail; Railroad traffic; Railroad transportation; Routes and routing; Travel demand; Travel time
- Uncontrolled Terms: Next generation design
- Geographic Terms: Asia; European Union countries
- Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01351707
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Sep 14 2011 11:12AM