Methodology of Homogeneous and Non-Homogeneous Markov Chains for Modelling Bridge Element Deterioration

Bridge management is an important activity of transportation agencies in the US and in many other countries. A critical aspect of bridge management is to reliably predict the deterioration of bridge structures, so that appropriate or optimal actions can be selected to reduce or minimize the deterioration rate and maximize the effect of spending for replacement or maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R). In the US, Pontis is the most popular bridge management system used among the state transportation agencies. Its deterioration model uses the Markov Chain, with a statistical regression to estimate the required transition probabilities. This is the core part of deterioration prediction in Pontis. This report focuses on the Markov Chain model used in Pontis, which is vital to the understanding and implementation of the Pontis software. Emphasis has been made on the limitations of Pontis methodology, and establishing a new method for transition probability estimation. This is because predicting deterioration is the basis for decision-making with respect to MR&R.

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• Record URL:
  • https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/18196
• Corporate Authors:

  Wayne State University

  Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  5050 Anthony Wayne Drive
  Detroit, MI  United States  48202

  Michigan Department of Transportation

  State Transportation Building
  425 West Ottawa Street
  Lansing, MI  United States  48909
• Authors:
  • Fu, Gongkang
  • Devaraj, Dinesh
• Publication Date: 2008-8

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Edition: Final Report
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 90p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bridge management systems; Markov chains; Mathematical models; Structural deterioration and defects
• Identifier Terms: Pontis (Computer program)
• Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; I60: Maintenance;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01207131
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Oct 13 2010 2:53PM