POSTWAR METROPOLITAN DEVELOPMENT' HOUSING PREFERENCES AND AUTO OWNERSHIP

EXTENSIVE GEOGRAPHIC GROWTH OF METROPOLITAN REGIONS, EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION DECLINE IN CENTRAL AREAS, AND LOW DENSITY DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY RESIDENTIAL, ARE PERHAPS THE MOST NOTABLE DIMENSIONS OF THE TRANSFORMATION EXPERIENCED IN U. S. METROPOLITAN AREAS SINCE WORLD WAR II. NEW AND CONSISTENT INFORMATION IS PRESENTED ABOUT THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP. REGARDLESS WHICH CASUAL HYPOTHESIS IS ACCEPTED, IT APPEARS THAT INCOME HAS BEEN THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR UNDERLYING BOTH HIGHER POSTWAR LEVELS OF AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP AND DECLINES IN RESIDENTIAL DENSITY. THIS CONCLUSION DERIVES BOTH FROM CONSIDERATION OF THE ESTIMATED REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND OF THE POSTWAR CHANGES IN INCOME AND OTHER EXPLANATORY VARIABLES. REAL MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME IN THE BOSTON AREA INCREASED BY AN ESTIMATED 56% BETWEEN 1950 AND 1960. THE INCOME ELASTICITIES OBTAINED FOR THE LEAST SQUARES AUTO OWNERSHIP EQUATIONS INDICATE THAT AN INCREASE OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN REAL MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME WOULD INCREASE AUTO OWNERSHIP PER HOUSEHOLD BY BETWEEN 28 AND 34%. WHILE RESIDENTIAL DENSITY IS EXOGENOUS IN THE LEAST SQUARES FORMULATION IT IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DEPENDENT UPON INCOME. THE MULTICOLLINEARITY BETWEEN AUTO OWNERSHIP AND INCOME IN THE TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARES /TSLS/ ESTIMATION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET THE SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION RESULTS. EVEN SO, THE PARAMETER ESTIMATES OBTAINED FOR THE TSLS EQUATIONS SUGGEST THE SINGLE EQUATION MODELS PROVIDE CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES OF THE EFFECT OF INCREASES IN INCOME ON AUTO OWNERSHIP. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAPID POSTWAR INCREASES IN FAMILY INCOME HAVE STRONGLY AFFECTED RESIDENTIAL DENSITY, EITHER DIRECTLY AS A ITEM OF CONSUMPTION OR INDIRECTLY THROUGH THEIR EFFECTS ON AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP. FAMILY SIZE AND LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION APPEAR TO BE THE MOST IMPORTANT DETERMINANTS OF RESIDENTIAL DENSITY.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00028282
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Vol 57, No 2, PP 223-234, 4 TAB
• Authors:
  • Kain, J F
• Publication Date: 1967-5

Media Info

• Serial:
  • American Economic Review
  • Publisher: American Economic Association
  • ISSN: 0002-8282

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Density; Development; Families; Geography; Income; Least squares method; Metropolitan areas; Ownership; Residential areas; Urban growth; Workforce
• Uncontrolled Terms: Family size
• Subject Areas: Economics; Geotechnology; Highways; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00201340
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Aug 23 1994 12:00AM