WILL MODEL BUILDING AND THE COMPUTER SOLVE OUR ECONOMIC FORECASTING PROBLEMS?

THE RELATION OF COMPUTER MODELS TO ECONOMIC FORECASTING WAS THE SUBJECT OF AN OPEN DISCUSSION SPONSERED BY THE COMMITTEE ON ECONOMIC FORECASTING OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, FINANCE AND ADMINISTRATION. ALL PANELISTS RECOGNIZED THE COMPUTERS VALUE IN TERMS OF SPEED, BOOK- KEEPING ABILITY, QUICK TESTING OF ALTERNATIVES AND THE ABILITY TO GIVE MATHEMATICAL OR STATISTICAL FORM TO LOGICAL IDEAS AS A GUIDE FOR JUDGEMENTS AND POLICIES. HOWEVER, MANY WERE AGAINST COMPLETE ACCEPTANCE OF A MECHANICAL FRAMEWORK OR TOO MUCH DEPENDENCE ON THE INFALLIBILITY OF ARBITRARY PROGRAMS. TOO LITTLE ROOM FOR SUBJECTIVE INPUTS WAS THOUGHT TO BE A MAJOR DISADVANTAGE. FOR EXAMPLE, COMPUTER MODELS ARE INSENSITIVE TO PUBLIC VALUE JUDGEMENTS. USEFULLNESS OF COMPUTER MODELS WAS AGREED TO BE DEPENDENT UPON ADEQUATELY WEIGHTED INPUT DATA, AND CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF COMPUTER TAPES.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/hrr/1966/149/149-001.pdf
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Sponsored by Committee on Economic Forecasting and presented at the 45th Annual Meeting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Steele, C A
  • Goldstein, Sidney
  • Cherniack, Nathan
  • Chinitz, Benjamin
  • Darmstadter, Joel
  • Frechtling, John A
  • Schlager, Kenneth J
  • Wynn, F Houston
• Discussers:
  • Paterson, Robert W
  • Steele, C A
• Publication Date: 1966

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Pagination: pp 1-28
• Monograph Title: Forecasting models and economic impact of highways
• Serial:
  • Highway Research Record
  • Issue Number: 149
  • Publisher: Highway Research Board

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Computers; Economic forecasting; Evaluation; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Speed; Statistical analysis; Testing
• Uncontrolled Terms: Input; Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Substitutes
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Data and Information Technology; Economics; Highways; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00200162
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Dec 12 1994 12:00AM