Evaluating Transportation Impacts of Forecast Demographic Scenarios Using Population Synthesis and Data Transferability

A population synthesis tool has been developed which allows an analyst to input future demographic scenarios for a modeled region to generate forecast year synthetic populations. The utility allows both direct manipulation of base-year marginal distributions for the forecast scenario and incorporates new models to estimate changes in the marginal distribution for some significant control variables. The models allow for an improved estimation of forecast year marginal totals. To demonstrate the application of the new utility, a travel data simulation model has been estimated and validated which enables the transference of a collection of travel demand indicators from a source, the National Household Travel Survey, to the forecast year synthetic population. The combination of the synthetic population with the simulated travel demand indicators will allows for an analysis of potential transportation impacts of estimated demographic changes without running a complete travel demand model when investigating multiple scenarios.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Auld, Joshua
  • Rashidi, Taha H
  • Mohammadian, Abolfazl
  • Weis, Kermit
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2010-1-10 to 2010-1-14
• Date: 2010

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: DVD
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p
• Monograph Title: TRB 89th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demographics; Population; Traffic data; Traffic forecasting; Traffic simulation; Travel demand; Travel surveys
• Identifier Terms: National Household Travel Survey
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01155181
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 10-3821
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Apr 23 2010 8:26AM