Mobility scenarios toward a post-carbon society

This document looks at the future of European transport up to the year 2050. Issues considered are the continuation of a correlation between passenger and freight traffic and GDP (gross domestic product) growth; the possible decoupling of transport growth from environmental impacts; and the effectiveness of various transport policies in reducing carbon dioxide emissions from transport activities. Scenario-based methodology presents consistent and plausible visions of the future. This project defines three types of scenario: predictive, up to 2030; exploratory, up to 2050, continuing the predicted trends; and normative, with 2020 and 2050 targets related to carbon dioxide emission reductions. The report introduces the modelling tools TRANS-TOOLS and TT meta-models. The quantitative results obtained are presented and discussed. Policy backcasting exercises are introduced to explore which policies would be more effective in achieving carbon dioxide emissions goals. The period 2005-2050 is seen as a transition period, with high economic uncertainty and possible large impacts of public policy. Trends in transport are expected to include growth in passenger mobility and freight transport, new generations of vehicles, and stable energy consumption.

• Corporate Authors:

  MCRIT

  ,    
• Publication Date: 2009-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 340p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air quality management; Economics; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Policy; Simulation; Transportation; Trend (Statistics)
• Geographic Terms: Europe
• ITRD Terms: 255: Economics; 2433: Emission control; 8034: Europe; 132: Forecast; 6473: Mathematical model; 173: Policy; 9103: Simulation; 1155: Transport; 6515: Trend (stat)
• Subject Areas: Economics; Policy; I10: Economics and Administration; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01141206
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: TRL
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Sep 30 2009 9:10AM