Market Receptivity Analysis for Programs of Off-Hour Deliveries in New York City

Urban traffic congestion is a growing problem in many major metropolitan areas. Congestion alleviation through the addition of infrastructure is costly, difficult, and does not provide a long run solution as the increase in capacity will induce traffic that, sooner or later, will bring back congestion. One potential solution to reducing urban congestion is to encourage businesses to shift deliveries from the daytime hours to the off-hours, which the authors define as the hours between 7 PM and 6 AM. This paper uses data for the New York City metropolitan area to determine which market segments will provide the greatest payout regarding a shift of deliveries to the off-hours. The analyses involved three steps. Trip generation models were obtained to estimate the number of deliveries generated by the various industry segments considered. Secondly, discrete choice models were estimated to determine the receptivity of various industry segments to implementing off-hour deliveries under various scenarios involving incentives to receivers and/or carriers. Finally, a behavioral micro-simulation was used to determine the shift in market shares for the segments under consideration. These analyses revealed that the wholesale trade and food segments generate a significant portion of daily deliveries, and among these two the food segment is more inclined to perform off-hour deliveries when presented with a tax deduction as an incentive to do so. It was thus determined that the food segment would be the best target for policies designed to increase off-hour deliveries.

• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Brom, Matthew A
  • Holguin-Veras, Jose
  • Silas, Michael A
  • Allen, Brandon
  • Destro, Lisa
  • Torres, Coral
  • Jaller, Miguel Angel
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2009-1-11 to 2009-1-15
• Date: 2009

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: DVD
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 18p
• Monograph Title: TRB 88th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Behavior modification; Choice models; Cities; Delivery service; Food industry; Freight traffic; Peak hour traffic; Periods of the day; Perishables; Traffic congestion; Trip generation; Urban areas; Wholesale trade
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; I73: Traffic Control;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01125258
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 09-2647
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Mar 30 2009 7:18AM