Risk-Based Rehabilitation Decisions for Network of Pavement Facilities
This paper presents a method of constructing risk-based rehabilitation policies for a network of pavement facilities that ensure a specific quality level. The model is formulated in the Markov Decision Process framework with risk-averse actions and transitional probabilities that are subjected to the uncertainty in the pavement performance model. A well known Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is used as a measure of risk to represent risk averseness of the decision maker. The steady-state risk-averse rehabilitation policies are modeled assuming no budget restriction. To address the short-term resource allocation problem two LP model are presented to generate network level polices with different objectives. The results from the two models show that distributing resources among facilities to minimize the total CVaR over all facilities (Knapsack model) will result in high variance compared to the Minimax model distributes resources to reduce CVaR variance uniformly.
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Seyedshohadaie, S. Reza
- Damnjanovic, Ivan D
- Butenko, Sergiy
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2009-1-11 to 2009-1-15
- Date: 2009
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: DVD
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 15p
- Monograph Title: TRB 88th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Decision making; Markov processes; Pavement maintenance; Pavement management systems; Pavement performance; Rehabilitation; Resource allocation; Risk assessment
- Subject Areas: Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01124865
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 09-2300
- Files: TRIS, TRB
- Created Date: Mar 26 2009 9:05AM