Evaluation of Environmentally Sustainable Transport Scenarios ESCOT – A System Dynamics Model with an Integrated Input-Output-Table

The goal of the System Dynamics Model (ESCOT) is to describe a path towards a sustainable transport system in Germany and to assess its economic impacts. ESCOT was developed within the environmentally sustainable transport (EST) project of the OECD that was designed to consider the ecological and technical aspects of a transition towards sustainable transportation. ESCOT comprises five models: the macroeconomic, the transport, the regional economic, the environmental and the policy model. An integrated Input-Output-Table for the German economy forms the backbone of the economic assessment. The Input-Output-Table is calculated endogenously by macroeconomic variables mostly from the demand side. It feeds back to other macroeconomic indicators in the next time period. The economic assessment for environmentally sustainable scenarios show that the departure from car and road freight oriented transport policy is far from leading to an economic breakdown. With an expansion of the time period for the transition the authors derived even more encouraging results. For the economic assessment it is important that ESCOT considers not only first round effects but also secondary effects. This ability makes ESCOT to a powerful instrument for the assessment of such large ecological changes.

• Corporate Authors:

  World Conference on Transport Research Society

  Secretariat, 14 Avenue Berthelot
  69363 Lyon cedex 07,   France 
• Authors:
  • Schade, Burkhard
• Conference:
  • 11th World Conference on Transport Research
  • Location: Berkeley CA, United States
  • Date: 2007-6-24 to 2007-6-28
• Publication Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 26p
• Monograph Title: 11th World Conference on Transport Research

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Environmental impacts; Habitat (Ecology); Input output models; Public transit; Sustainable transportation; Transit operating agencies
• Uncontrolled Terms: System dynamics
• Geographic Terms: Germany
• Subject Areas: Environment; Highways; Public Transportation; I15: Environment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01118796
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jan 22 2009 9:34AM