TABULATING DEMAND ELASTICITIES FOR URBAN TRAVEL FORECASTING

This paper presents a compendium of demand elasticities in a tabulated form in order to facilitate urban travel forecasting. A number of elasticity estimates have been reported for a variety of cities over the past decade, but the scenarios or base conditions differ from one site to another. In order to systematically tabulate these disparate estimates, demand elasticities were pooled into four cells according to urban size (large versus medium) and urban structure (core-concentrated versus multinucleated). Such a classification has been verified to stratify cities into groups sharing common socioeconomic and travel patterns. Demand elasticities can be divided into two categories: empirical elasticities and calibrated elasticities. The former were measured in the field before and after notable incidents such as a fare increase in the transit system, while the latter were derived from demand models. The elasticities can be further identified as either aggregate or disaggregate depending on whether they are calculated from demand models. The elasticities can be further identified as either aggregate or disaggregate depending on whether they are calculated from areawide or subarea data. All these result in a collection of elasticities that have rather different values. This paper tries to explain some of these differences to gain insights into the general characteristics of elasticides for urban areas of different sizes and structures. The elasticity tabulation and the general properties of the elasticities provide both practitioners and researchers with factual information for estimating urban travel demand simply and systematically. /Authors/

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1978/673/673-007.pdf
• Record URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=TABULATING+DEMAND+ELASTICITIES+FOR+URBAN+TRAVEL+FORECASTING&author=Y.+Chan&author=F.+Ou&publication_year=1978
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper appeared in TRB Research Record No. 673, Transportation Forecasting and Travel Behavior. Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting and Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Chan, Y
  • Ou, F L
• Publication Date: 1978

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 40-46
• Monograph Title: Transportation forecasting and travel behavior
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 673
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Mathematical models; Mechanical elasticity; Public transit; Travel demand; Travel patterns; Urban areas
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00195989
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 15 1981 12:00AM