An Estimation-Optimization Approach to the Management of Transportation Infrastructure Systems under Model Uncertainty

This paper presents an estimation-optimization framework to obtain maintenance and repair policies for infrastructure facilities under performance model uncertainty. The objective of the paper is to minimize the total expected social cost of managing facilities over a finite planning horizon. Performance model uncertainty is accounted for by representing facility deterioration as an unknown mixture of deterioration models taken from a finite set. The mixture proportions are assumed to be continuous random variables, and thus, the estimation problem consists of updating the corresponding probability density in response to condition data gathered during the management process. In the proposed framework, maximum likelihood estimates of the mixture proportions are obtained using the Quasi-Bayes approach. To illustrate the methodology, the paper will present a numerical example where the paper will analyze the effect of initial performance model uncertainty and bias on the expected total cost of managing a facility. The main observation is that reducing the initial variance in model uncertainty may be more important than reducing the initial bias.

• Corporate Authors:

  World Conference on Transport Research Society

  Secretariat, 14 Avenue Berthelot
  69363 Lyon cedex 07,   France 
• Authors:
  • Durango-Cohen, Pablo L
• Conference:
  • 11th World Conference on Transport Research
  • Location: Berkeley CA, United States
  • Date: 2007-6-24 to 2007-6-28
• Publication Date: 2007

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: CD-ROM
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p
• Monograph Title: 11th World Conference on Transport Research

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Adaptive control; Estimation theory; Finite element method; Infrastructure; Maintenance; Optimization; Stochastic programming; Transportation system management; Uncertainty
• Subject Areas: Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; I21: Planning of Transport Infrastructure;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01117580
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 30 2008 12:32PM