A Wedge Analysis of the U.S. Transportation Sector
The concept of stabilization wedges is introduced and applied to the U.S. transportation sector in order to assess the potential of approaches that could reduce both greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and petroleum consumption. Three general approaches are assessed using a wedge analysis, including (1) improvements in vehicle technology, (2) switching to lower-GHG fuels, and (3) utilization of travel demand management (TDM). A broad range of assumptions are considered for each of these approaches, reflecting the wide range of estimates regarding alternative transportation fuels, improvements in vehicle technology, and potential reductions in TDM. A wedge analysis is used to help frame the issues involved and to compare the numerous transportation approaches using a common metric – namely a wedge count. It is shown that approximately nine U.S. transportation sector wedges, each representing 5,000 MMT CO2e of cumulative reductions between now and 2050, would be enough to flatten emissions in the sector. Just over four wedges could flatten emissions from the passenger vehicle category. A wedge analysis was performed on a wide range of scenarios involving just passenger vehicles. Fuel switching alone could yield up to 2.3 wedges. Vehicle technologies, when combined with fuels, could account for up to 3 wedges given a 30% market share by 2050. TDM alone could account for up to 1.4 wedges given a 15% reduction in travel growth by 2050. By contrast, a system approach combining the three approaches can result in 4 to 9 wedges.
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Corporate Authors:
Environmental Protection Agency
1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC United States 20460 -
Authors:
- Mui, Simon
- Alson, Jeff
- Ellies, Benjamin
- Ganss, David
- Publication Date: 2007-4
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Features: Appendices; Figures; Tables;
- Pagination: 24p
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Exhaust gases; Forecasting; Fuel consumption; Greenhouse gases; Passenger vehicles; Petroleum fuels; Technology; Travel demand management; Vehicles
- Uncontrolled Terms: Stabilization wedges
- Geographic Terms: United States
- Subject Areas: Energy; Environment; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment; I15: Environment;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01113187
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: EPA420-R-07-007
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Oct 21 2008 8:49AM